Before the next cyclone hits: a new publication in Nature Ecology & Evolution calls for proactive planning to prevent island extinctions

Before August 2017, the Puerto Rican parrot (Amazona vittata) population at El Yunque National Forest (EYNF) numbered around 56 birds. By October, only three birds from this population were sighted. 

First came Hurricane Irma, which passed close to Puerto Rico on September 7, 2017, causing widespread disruption to the island’s infrastructure and natural systems. Less than two weeks later, Hurricane Maria directly hit Puerto Rico. According to the US National Weather Service, it was “the strongest hurricane to make landfall on the island since 1928”, with devastating consequences for people and ecosystems across the island.  

At Río Abajo Forest, at another site where the species occurs, numbers went from 136 to 91 individuals after Hurricane Maria. But by 2022, the populations had climbed again: 32 parrots at EYNF and 210 at Río Abajo Forest. Part of that recovery was due to a coordinated conservation effort that included not only wild populations, but also ex situ populations managed across multiple facilities—since before the hurricanes—to support translocations and long-term recovery. 

The Puerto Rican parrot is just one example of a species facing major risk from tropical cyclones. It is also an important example of successful preventive planning in the face of this peculiar threat. 

From overlooked threat to a planning priority 

In 2025, a publication lead by CPSG's Dr. Simon Valle shed light on a pressing but often overlooked threat to biodiversity: tropical cyclones. While these are natural phenomena, their impacts on species today are being intensified by habitat fragmentation, invasive species, and climate change. What makes tropical cyclones such a hard-hitting threat is that they are relatively unpredictable, incredibly sudden and can wipe out entire species at once. 

That paper presented the first global assessment of cyclone-driven extinction risk across biodiversity hotspots and proposed a watchlist of species at immediate risk from a single cyclone. It also raised an important challenge for conservation planning: if a species can collapse across most or all of its range within hours, current conservation strategies might be too slow. 

That work then inspired a working group at the 2025 CPSG Annual Meeting in Cali, Colombia, where conservation practitioners, researchers, and policy specialists discussed how cyclone-driven extinction risk could be better incorporated into conservation planning. Now, a new Comment in Nature Ecology & Evolution, developed by members of that working group, proposes a concrete path forward. 

Conservation planning for island biodiversity 

The need for this kind of planning is especially urgent on islands. Since the arrival of humans, more than 60% of known terrestrial extinctions have occurred on tropical oceanic islands. Many island species survive in small, isolated populations with limited ranges and little capacity to recover if a single storm destroys their habitat or causes a sudden population to collapse. The impacts of tropical cyclones can be both rapid and severe. However, unlike many other threats, cyclones are also seasonal and geographically concentrated, which means we have an opportunity to prepare in advance. 

That is one of the central arguments of the new publication: conservation planning should move beyond reacting after the fact and toward coordinated preparedness for catastrophic climatic events. 

A proposed framework for action 

Red List assessments remain central to how the conservation community identifies and responds to threatened species. But the authors argue that the current assessment process may be missing opportunities for preparedness and prevention when it comes to cyclone-threatened species. 

The authors propose a framework under the umbrella of a proposed global IUCN-led Task Force that would help identify and prioritize the species most at risk, coordinate expertise, and develop practical guidance for action before and after a cyclone makes landfall. Among the roles envisioned for this Task Force are: 

• Develop and share standardized cyclone preparedness protocols before a cyclone hits. 

• Develop and share preapproved emergency response guidelines to be implemented in the immediate aftermath. 

• Develop intervention playbooks and recommendations for establishing coordination systems to facilitate recovery in the months and years following a cyclone’s landfall.  

• Build on the tools proposed by Valle et al. 2025: a global watchlist of species at immediate risk from a single cyclone, with the aim of integrating this watchlist within the IUCN Red List and its assessment processes. 

Notably, the authors mention that “for species on the watchlist, a conservation plan should be developed as a matter of priority—surprisingly, many cyclone-threatened species do not have a conservation plan nor is their range included in protected areas.” The authors also emphasize that scenario-based planning—similar to approaches used in humanitarian and disaster-response fields—could help conservationists think more concretely about what to do before, during, and after a cyclone. 

For some species, interventions can mean habitat protection and restoration. For others, it may entail integrated in situ and ex situ interventions designed through the One Plan Approach, including conservation breeding or biobanking as insurance measures. Because these interventions can be resource-intensive, clear prioritization and decision frameworks will be essential. 

The central message is not that tropical cyclones are a new event, but that the extinction dynamics they create in the Anthropocene are different, and current conservation systems are not yet equipped to manage them. Without proactive, coordinated action, cyclones are likely to become increasingly important as extinction drivers for already-threatened species. Ultimately, the authors are hopeful that “with foresight, preparedness, and collaboration, many of these losses are preventable.”